The boss of the CBI says Gordon Brown may have cause to feel gloomy about the economy,but business should still have reasons to be cheerful.
Speaking in Nottingham, former Financial Times editor Richard Lambert said the country was in a period of "turbulence and economic uncertainty".
But the CBI's director general told business leaders at its regional dinner he thought talk of gloom was being overdone.
He said: "There are choppy waters ahead. Economic growth is set to slow in the coming quarters, and there is just a chance it could disappear altogether around the turn of the year.
"And there's not much the policy-makers can do to check the slowdown.
"The Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates is strictly constrained by what's happening to inflation over the short term.
"And the Chancellor of the Exchequer has just about no wiggle room when it comes to fiscal policy.
"That's because of the profligate way in which the public finances have been run in recent years, which means they are not in the shape that they ought to be at this stage of the cycle. But I remain an optimist."
Mr Lambert, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, predicted little cheer in the business world over the next year or so.
He continued: "I do think it's important to remember the qualities that make the UK a great place to live and to work over the long term.
"First there's our history and culture of free trade, open borders and liberal inquiry.
"Just in the last 15 years, the UK has become a magnet for ambitious young people from the rest of Europe and the world.
"Nottingham universities are home to thousands of students from Asia.
"Our doors have been open to foreign capital as well as to foreign talent."
Mr Lambert said cities in the UK have been transformed, with those such as Nottingham brought to dynamic life by economic growth and an inflow of creative talent.
He said Nottingham's economy was dominated by Raleigh, Players and Boots plus sizeable textile and engineering companies.
There was one university with 5,000 students.
He added: " The city economy today has been totally transformed, and with considerable success."
Mr Lambert said the British public was more relaxed about the idea of globalisation than either the US or continental Europe.
Social safety nets here also meant people whose industries had been displaced have some degree of economic protection.
He added: "Our flexible labour market remains a major force for stability. It's why unemployment here is so much lower than is the case in most parts of continental Europe.
"And it's the reason for hoping that unemployment is not going to rise that much in the tougher times to come."
Mr Lambert added: "So long as companies believe the slowdown is going to be relatively mild - which is the sensible way to bet right now - the tendency will be for them to hold on to their labour force and wait for better times.
"So long as people are confident about their job prospects, we won't see a real dive in consumer confidence."
Mr Lambert said the housing market in the early 1990s was killed by a sharp rise in unemployment coinciding with a huge rise in interest rates.
"Neither of those nasties are likely this time round," he added.
Mr Lambert said that although the UK was a great place to live and work, there was a problem with business taxes.
"The UK has been slipping down the league table of major industrialised nations in recent years, and the Government has made matters worse by its inconsistent and erratic approach to business tax since last year's budget.
"The Government must work really hard to rebuild a sense of trust with the business community."
Source: This Is Nottingham
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